Are We Safe with SAF? Part 1

Part one of our report on the Aviation Carbon 2023 conference at London Heathrow Airport, 6-7 November.

Photo courtesy of Aviation Carbon Events

Introduction

The answer to the question, “Are we safe with SAF?” is a resounding, widely accepted, “Yes,” as it is approved JET A fuel (equivalent to fossil kerosene), produced using a range of non-oil feedstocks. Operators have now accepted this as fact – subject to quality control measures, of course.

However, whether we can rely on SAF to deliver aviation carbon neutrality (Net Zero) by 2050, which is what aviation has committed itself to, is another question altogether.

At present (2023), SAF only accounts for 0.1% of jet fuel produced worldwide. But for aviation, the journey towards electric, hydrogen, etc., has only just begun and will take decades to play out; in short, aviation needs something much, much sooner and SAF promises (at first glance) to provide what many accept can only be a stop-gap solution.

How to stimulate demand for SAF has been discussed widely in recent years – it was the “big question” – once the industry had accepted it is safe as a “drop-in” fuel that can be blended with fossil kerosene, and ultimately used as 100% SAF.

However, it appears that demand will be a given, too. Despite SAF being 2-3 times the price of kerosene, most operators feel that they have no choice but to commit to using SAF as part of underlining their “green credentials”. This pressure will only increase – although for all but the smallest operators SAF use can also lead to credits to set against ETS/CORSIA carbon obligations (ETS is the European Union’s Emissions Trading System and CORSIA is the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation), under the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO, an agency of the United Nations).

Furthermore, mandates are starting to come in that will ramp up the amount of SAF that airlines and business/private aircraft operators must use, and the mandates will gradually ratchet up required SAF proportions.

With concerns over basic safety and demand now allayed, the primary issue - post-2020, perhaps - has become how to ramp up SAF production to the huge levels required to meet the need, driven by the incredibly ambitious goal of aviation reaching Net Zero by 2050.

Aviation Carbon

At the Aviation Carbon conference in November 2023 (roughly the tenth edition of the event), it had clearly become an industry assumption that government policy is going to have to play a major role, to the extent that incentives are also likely to be needed to encourage SAF production (rather than just forcing demand).

Many agreed that innovation also needed to play a role. For example, with SAF being so scarce, many airports don’t have it (yet). Thus, the latest mantra has become the prospect of a robust “Book & Claim” system, whereby operators can gain credit for SAF consumed elsewhere.

The key word here is “robust” and a second significant theme that was evident in the conference was the need for robust certification and accounting for SAF use; discussing this with the software vendors exhibiting at Aviation Carbon 2023 highlighted how some are building this into existing ETS/CORSIA platforms used by operators.

With SAF coming in varieties with respect to feedstocks/ingredients and production methods, some companies have eyed an opportunity to create databases that can reliably record certification of SAF and its supply chain in its various forms and with potentially thousands of sources and producers in the future. As one speaker noted, putting in the strong foundations now is critical as production starts to ramp up.

In summary, the conference highlighted that SAF has become far more complex – driven mainly by the airline and oil & gas sectors, but with many third-party players and service providers now active. This builds on the sector that grew out of ETS and CORSIA and shows no sign of slowing down.

The jury is very much out on whether aviation can succeed in achieving Net Zero by 2050, and this should be the message received by government policymakers who have to make sure the policies and incentives they put in place allow aviation to meet the goal.

As many speakers reiterated in the conference, aviation is among the most difficult sectors to decarbonize and this becomes harder with larger, long-haul aircraft which can’t go electric or run on hydrogen - we will have to wait for a new generation of very different aircraft for that. And even if they enter service in the next few years, it takes decades for the fleet to replenish with new technology, such that the volumes of Jet A being consumed (and CO2 being produced) can come down as demand for aviation continues to grow.

SAF is, it’s safe to say, essential if aviation is to meet its 2050 goal.

Setting the Scene

According to Jonathan Counsell, group head of sustainability at British Airways’ parent company, IAG, “the aviation sector is the only one committed globally” to reaching net zero by 2050. “Carbon roadmaps are the key,” said Counsell, “and we [as an industry] have a number of these now”. He also pointed to Waypoint 2050, the ATAG report that outlined the range of initiatives aviation can take to decarbonize – namely innovating with aircraft technology; improving operations and infrastructure; deploying SAF; and investing in “out-of-sector” carbon reduction measures.

Counsell highlighted that this report and others by ICAO and IATA, “all see SAF playing a critical role and it is the only solution for long-haul.”

Kevin Welsh, VP Environmental Affairs and Chief Sustainability Officer for Airlines for America (A4A), said there are lots of programs already, “It’s fantastic we have production in the U.S. but it’s a really big challenge to scale [this] up - we continue to address it.”

Milena Fajardo, head of environment & sustainability for the Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association (ALTA) reflected that “We need governments to engage in the Caribbean, [perhaps by] investing in production - Latin America and the Caribbean are way behind,” though she welcomed the investment by Brazil in a production plant in Paraguay.

Maureen Gautier, sustainability manager for the European Business Aviation Association (EBAA), said, “Demand is more and more, whether high net worth Individuals or corporates, we’re on a wave of excitement about SAF.”

Nancy Young, chief sustainability officer at Gevo, retorted, “A lot of us have been waiting for a long time but it hasn’t quite got to where we wanted.”

Counsell said there is some SAF production in the UK now, with Phillips 66 supplying BA from its Humber refinery since last year using used cooking oil feedstock. Both Phillips 66 and BA are members of the UK’s Jet Zero Council, and Counsell sits on its Board. He also noted that the EU has only four SAF plants to date, producing on a low scale, “the UK government has set a 10% target [as mandated proportion of SAF in jet fuel] and aims to have five plants in construction by 2025.”

Asking the audience, “How do we scale up?” there was “deathly silence,” Young observed. – perhaps suggesting few had solid ideas. Kevin Welsh described the sector as “A policy laboratory.”

“We’re eager to see what comes out of the UK - what it takes to get there,” he said. For example, it may be deemed appropriate to put a cap on certain types of SAF such as those using HEFA (Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids), while those seen as impacting land use for farming or forestry, for example, may be seen as unacceptable impacts. “This is of great concern to airlines who are committing [to SAF]. The decisions over policies are really going to matter,” Counsell.

“Book & Claim”

EBAA’s Gautier said there were obligations on big airports to stock SAF but business aviation flies to “lots of smaller airports” which are unlikely to have it. She said it was also difficult for smaller operators to deal with producers, compared to airlines. “So we need a Book & Claim system which will allow us to purchase SAF even when we fly to remote airports.”

“There’s nowhere near enough SAF,” stressed Counsell. “And it’s complicated as there’s no one answer for governments on what to support. There’s no doubt the U.S. is in the lead on incentives, and this is why 90% of all investment in production is in the U.S.” – partly due to the Inflation Reduction Act.

He also pointed out that, “Mandates create demand but don’t drive investment, so you need incentives…a mandate is great in that it creates a demand signal, but it’s not enough – and is why we’ve been so focused on [trying to formulate] a Revenue Certainty Mechanism. We’ve been working on this with the UK government as it’s absolutely critical for unlocking production…[and] we need 10-15 plants. [To date] the government has gone down the mandate route – and we’re waiting for ministers to give the decision by the end of this year.”

Counsell concluded that various generations of SAF, using various feedstocks and production technologies, were at different stages in their development cycles, further complicating the picture for policymakers.

Walsh said, “We could easily end up increasing the bill without achieving the objectives,” adding the sector is already having a challenging time attracting financial support. There is lots of uncertainty over policy but also over understanding the lifecycle, for example over land use for biofuels.

Nancy Young of Gevo, moderating, said, “As a producer, we’re finding we’re having to meet seven different sets of requirements.” To conclude the panel session, she asked about how electric and hydrogen fit in. EBAA’s Gautier said these represented a “big opportunity for business aviation – it’s good to test things in business aviation, as it’s a [proven] incubator, and HNWIs want to showcase that they are doing something for the environment.”

At the other end of the spectrum, BA’s Counsell said, “We think electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft won’t represent much for us up to 2050,” but said BA is involved in Airbus Zero-e initiatives and is an investor in ZeroAvia. “From 2035, we’re starting to see the first hydrogen-powered narrowbodies,” he predicted.

Gautier said, “Our aim is to go to conferences like this one to educate and explain what the benefits of SAF are and our pathways to net zero – and to explain that aviation is a difficult area to decarbonize. It will need a basket of measures, not just SAF, such as better operational efficiency.

Concluding the session, Kevin Walsh said he agreed it was, “Not just SAF. All things are critical, CORSIA, electric aircraft and hydrogen-powered aircraft.” Counsell reiterated that the right policies will be essential to accelerate the transition. “We’ll continue to work together with the rest of the industry and through our associations,” he said.

Part 2 will cover Financing, ‘Book & Claim’, and SAF Certification.